Macy’s Stock (NYSE:M), a department store chain, was down 8% in the last ten trading days (two weeks). By comparison, the broader S&P500 index is up almost 3% over the same period. The company saw its net sales grow 40% year-over-year (year-over-year) to $25.3 billion. It should be noted that the company’s sales were flat from the pre-pandemic year, but adjusted diluted EPS increased 82% to $5.31 from 2019. Macy’s saw stunning improvement in 2021 compared to the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic. in 2020, and it continues to expect strong growth in the first fiscal quarter of 2022 as well. However, the department store giant could face much tougher comparisons in the second quarter and beyond. To add to that, the company faces cost pressures, including from its decision to raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour. On a yearly basis, Macy’s expects sales to grow 0% to 1% and calls for adjusted EPS to moderate to a range of $4.13 to $4.52 in 2022. This implies lower Double-digit EPS from record high of $5.31. reached in 2021.
Macy’s has lined up numerous growth initiatives, including new store-in-store partnerships with Toys R Us, a third-party marketplace on its e-commerce site, and expansion of its small-format store fleet. The company has announced that it will continue to develop its own off-price concept In the wings at a rapid pace in 2022. These In the wings the stores are designed on the concept of providing customers with affordable and trendy fashion offerings, located in select Macy’s stores, typically ranging in size from 11 to 16,000 square feet.
Now, is M stock set to decline in the near term, or do gains seem more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years, there is a 51% chance of M stock rising over the next month (twenty-one days scholarship). See our analysis on Macy’s stock upside chance for more details.
Calculation of “probability of occurrence” and “probability of increase” using data from the last ten years
 Returns of -3.9% or less on a five day period 470 times out of 2516 (19%); Stock rose over the next five days in 246 of those 470 cases (52%)
 Returns of -8.3% or less in ten– daytime 306 times out of 2516 (12%); Stock rose over the next ten days in 170 of those 306 cases (56%)
 Returns of -0.9% or less over a twenty-one day period 1057 times out of 2516 (42%); The stock rose over the next twenty-one days in 541 of those 1057 cases (51%)
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