Macy’s Stock (NYSE:M), a department store chain, rose 7% in the last ten trading days (two weeks). By comparison, the broader S&P500 index is up almost 8% over the same period. Macy’s announced some strategic updates recently – which include open four small-format stores in locations other than traditional malls this year and expand its existing partnership with WHP Global to open Toys “R” Us stores in every Macy’s store by mid-October. These initiatives seem to be in line with the evolution of consumer buying habits. Additionally, the company posted better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter (which ended April 30) and raised its guidance for the rest of the year. To add to that, the company’s recent focus on growing digital channels is also paying off. Macy’s digital sales in the first quarter were 34% higher than the comparable quarter of 2019 and accounted for 33% of its overall sales.

However, Macy’s still faces headwinds with more than 700 of its stores still located in conventional malls. Although Macy’s business has improved significantly since before entering the pandemic, its inconvenient locations and competition from low-cost retailers such as TJX could likely contain that growth in the future. It may take an extended period of continued revenue and earnings growth for the company to outperform in the short term. Looking back three years, Macy’s stock is still nearly 18% below 2019 levels.

Now, is M stock set to decline in the near term, or do gains seem more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years, there is a 48% chance of M stock rising over the next month (twenty-one days scholarship). See our analysis on Macy’s Stock up chance for more details.

Calculation of “probability of occurrence” and “probability of increase” using data from the last ten years

[1] Returns of -6.4% or less on a five day period 305 times out of 2516 (12%); The stock rose over the next five days in 141 of those 305 cases (46%)

[2] Returns of 7.3% or more in ten– daytime 404 times out of 2516 (16%); Stock rose over the next ten days in 181 of those 404 cases (45%)

[3] Returns of -10% or less on a twenty-one day period 382 times out of 2514 (15%); Stock rose over the next twenty-one days in 182 of those 382 cases (48%)

It helps to see how your peers compare. M Peers shows how Macy’s stocks compare to those of their peers on important metrics. You’ll find other useful comparisons for companies in all industries at Peer Comparisons.

With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Macy’s has fallen 33% this year. Can it fall more? See how low M stock can go by comparing its drop in previous stock market crashes. Here is a summary of how all stocks performed during previous stock market crashes.

What if you were looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have consistently beaten the market since late 2016.

Return Jul 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
M Back -5% -33% -51%
S&P 500 return 8% -15% 82%
Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 11% -14% 240%

[1] Cumulative monthly and cumulative annual as of 07/29/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016